Δευτέρα 29 Σεπτεμβρίου 2025

Turkey Threatens to go Elsewhere if the U.S. doesn't Deliver what it Wants: Let them!


🇹🇷 is finding it difficult to acquire the F-35, new engines for its domestically produced 4.5-5th (?) generation fighter jets-Kaan, even F-16's. Why?
Why is Erdogan subject to hearing humiliating words from his US counterpart like "maybe if you do something for us..." we'll think about selling you the F-35?
Why is it Erdogan's predecessors like Turgut Ozal & Suleyman Demirel found it comparatively easier to embed Turkey squarely into the F-16 program decades ago?
Why do other F-35 operating countries not experience the same difficulties in acquiring the platform that Turkey does?
We still don't know if the Trump administration will make moves to readmit Turkey into the F-35 program but some pundits in Turkey are beginning to get angry following Erdogan's White House visit.
With each passing hour, it is becoming clear that Erdogan may came away with very little to show for ~$100 billion spending spree to get a 2.5 hour photo op with Trump.
The reasons behind Turkey's frustrations are relatively simple to understand: There is a significant amount of resistance built up among institutions in the United States government, allied governments and lobby groups, all of which suspect that Turkey cannot be trusted with advanced weaponry like the F-35.
This lack of trust did not materialize over night. It has been fomented over a number of years by the Erdogan regime. We simply do not know what Turkey will do with these weapons: start new regional wars, antagonize/attack US allies like Greece, Cyprus or Israel, perhaps try to restructure the Middle East in Erdogan's vision by force? Who knows-the rhetoric and posturing of Erdogan's regime certainly supports it.
We also know that we don't witness similar escalatory and belligerent behavior in other countries that operate our advanced platforms that militarily threaten our allies. Put bluntly, we don't suspect Norway will carpet bomb Sweden with its F-35 fleet due to lingering historical disputes.
Add to this Ankara's mountain sized sense of entitlement and ego. Erdogan and co fundamentally believe that acquiring F-35's is Turkey's right, and this view is
championed
by the country's leading defense analysts including
@barinkayaoglu
&
@eksiozgur
. Such a position originates from a prevailing view that Turkey placed a downpayment for the F-35's and now "deserves" to have them delivered.
It is a narrow and callous view - one that conveniently omits an understanding of US laws, regulations and customary norms pertaining to foreign military sales (FMS). It also shows a glaring lack of understanding and underestimation for the role of interest groups and domestic constituents in the US, whose views are also relevant when considering FMS. Payment to acquire US military equipment, in many instances, is a necessary, but an insufficient condition of acquisition.
The entitlement based view is laced with dangerous
nationalist
undertones among Turkey's defense analyst community. Essentially, what they are implicitly saying is "give us your advanced military technology, and stay out of our business and what we do with it!" Moreover, they are becoming increasingly threatening when intimating "if you don't stop wasting our time and don't give us what we want (F-35's, fighter engines etc...) we'll be forced to get them from some other supplier!" Maybe Russia, China, UK, France?
Here's what's insulting for the United States: which other operator comes to the table to make requests in such a manner? Which other allied countries of the United States fundamentally host terrorist organizations designated by the US and demand F-35's from them? Ankara wants to sell its Kaan fighter to Indonesia when its operational. Would Turks be happy if Indonesia gave the PKK operational bases, passports and called it a resistance movement? Which other NATO country has played both sides of the Ukraine war like Turkey, and held up NATO expansion for 18 months?
Moreover, Turkey does not want a partnership or alliance with the United States. It wants to raid the cellar and get out. It wants F-35's and other advanced US military technology to chart its independent trajectory without looking back and without any regard for any US national security or foreign policy priority.
This is why Washington has built up a disliking for the Erdogan regime and refused to sell it weapons. This is why Turkey's former leaders didn't get the humiliating treatment that Erdogan did days ago in the White House. Ozal and Demirel sought partnership, and alignment with the United States, which in turn prioritized Turkey's national security goals such as combatting terrorism.
The likes of Eksi and Kayaoglu don't want to point out the undesirable position that Turkey is in. It is not because the West wants to deny the rise of Turkey. It is the end result of deinstitutionalized decision-making, resulting from power being concentrated in the hands of one man that has been making decisions not in the national interest, but in the interest of prolonging his increasingly illegitimate and autocratic regime.
Never in million years would pre-Erdogan Turkey's government's permitted the purchase of a Russian missile defense system that would compromised Turkey's ability to acquire a strategic capability such as the F-35. Turkey would not even be in this mess, had it simply stayed the course and resisted cozying up to Russia. Yes-Putin forced him to purchase the S-400's as part of the normalization process between the two nations after Erdogan ordered the downing of a Russian fighter jet. But no-one forced him to this-and again, this should not have been a one man decision, but an institutional one. Some people peddle the story that Washington refused to sell Ankara the Patriot missile system, forcing Erdogan's hand to buy S-400's. This is a lie-and a big one told by Erdogan and his cronies to hide Erdogan's horrendous decision making chain in 2019.
By arguing against Turkey getting advanced US weapons, one is labeled as either a traitor, a Gulen supporter or acting against the interests of the country's well being. I submit to this crowd: grow up! there is not one foreign policy, national defense, geo-political decision taken by the Erdogan regime in 23 years that has positioned Turkey in a better place. By every measurable metric Turkey is in a worse position with its allies, reputational standing and value as an ally. Were it not already in NATO, Turkey under Erdogan would likely have been designated as a state sponsor of terrorism.
Domestically, the country is now on the verge of being an autocracy with no semblance of rule of law. Education policies deny teaching evolution theory, with a kleptocratic regime ploughing full steam ahead. Erdogan has impoverished and decimated the middle class. Pursuing a multi billion dollar arms sector, doesn't help Turkey's ailing citizens. It entrenches their economic misery.
There is no interest for the United States to supply advanced strategic weaponry and place it into the hands of an emerging adversary. We would not be doing its people any favors. If we gave them what they asked for, they would chart their own course against our interest anyway. If we don't, they are threatening to source it from other countries. I say let them.
For my additional take in Turkish, feel free to watch my
conversation
with
@AlinOzinian
on
@ViaTVMedya

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